Uncovering Hidden Value in the NFL
When it comes to making informed betting decisions, I rely on two crucial factors: a model-backed approach and a less-efficient market. By combining these two elements, I can uncover hidden value in the NFL and increase my chances of coming out ahead.
Defensive Player Props: Where Value Lies
Calais Campbell, the 38-year-old defensive tackle, has been productive this season, but my model suggests that his chances of recording a sack are lower than the odds suggest. With a pass rush win rate of 16%, Campbell is fighting against base rates that are working against him. My model makes the fair price on the under -329.
Riley Moss, the Denver Broncos’ outside corner, has gone over 5.5 combined tackles in four of six contests this year, but my model forecasts only 4.3 combined tackles for him. With Spencer Rattler starting and the Saints banged up at receiver, I expect New Orleans to go more run-heavy than usual, making the under a more attractive option.
Running Back Receptions and Receiving Yards: Fading Man Coverage Defenses
Alvin Kamara, the Saints running back, is going against the heaviest man coverage defense in the league, making the under 4.5 receptions a more likely outcome. My model has consistently shown that running backs catch fewer passes against man coverage defenses, and this matchup fits the bill.
Alternate Receiving Yards: Identifying Undervalued Players
Jaylen Waddle, the Miami Dolphins’ wide receiver, has a good chance of exceeding 50-plus receiving yards, according to my model. Despite Tua Tagovailoa’s absence, Waddle has played three full games and one partial game without him, and my model is confident about the value here. Miami is also coming off the bye, which could lead to improvements in their offense.
Anytime Touchdown: Jauan Jennings’ Strong Numbers
Jauan Jennings, the San Francisco 49ers’ wide receiver, has impressive numbers, including 3.1 yards per route run and 28% target rate. My model sees more value on Jennings to score a touchdown than any other wide receiver, making him a good bet at +300.
Alternate Totals: Weather Plays a Crucial Role
The forecast for the New England Patriots-Jacksonville Jaguars game in London looks blustery, with wind gusts up to 41 mph and a 25% chance of rain. My model believes that this weather forecast is underrepresented in the totals for this game, making the under 34.5 a more attractive option.
Past Results: A Track Record of Success
Our past results for this season show a strong track record of success, with a overall record of 52-38-4 and a unit change of +14.4. By sticking to our model-backed approach and identifying less-efficient markets, we can continue to uncover hidden value in the NFL.
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