The NFL’s revamped kickoff structure has sparked creativity among coaches, but also caution. In a recent Week 3 matchup, the Houston Texans attempted a “knuckle ball” kick to pin the Minnesota Vikings deep, but it bounced out of bounds, resulting in a penalty and a 40-yard starting position for the Vikings. This sequence highlights both the promise and difficulty of the new rules.
Through four weeks, the leaguewide return rate stands at 29%, up from 17% last season but still one of the lowest since 2000. More than two-thirds of kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks, as coaches opt for certainty over risk. While return rates tend to increase in the second half of the season due to weather conditions, it remains to be seen if the league will meet its preseason projections of a 50-60% return rate.
Injury data on kickoffs is not yet publicly available, but early indications suggest the rule change is heading in the right direction. The NFL’s competition committee used a template developed by the XFL, which reduced high-speed collisions and incentivized returns. Instead of running down the field, 10 members of the coverage team and at least nine members of the return team start the play in a setup zone 25 yards away from the kicker.
Coaches have taken different approaches to the new rules. Some, like Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams, have opted for touchbacks, citing the uncertainty of returnable kicks. Others, like Darren Rizzi of the New Orleans Saints, have been more aggressive in attempting to pin opponents inside the 20. The Saints have recorded the league’s second-lowest touchback rate and highest opponent return rate.
As the season progresses, special teams units are expected to become more bold and creative in their approaches. Weather conditions will likely play a role in increasing return rates, and players will become more comfortable with the skills needed to execute shorter kicks and block for returns. However, it’s clear that a rule tweak may be necessary to achieve a more substantial boost in return rates. The NFL’s commissioner has hinted at the possibility of moving the touchback from the 30 to the 35, which could be a game-changer.
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