In this unpredictable NFL season, the defensive landscape has been as volatile as ever. The top-scoring defense so far, the Minnesota Vikings, was drafted 23rd on average during the preseason, while the top three defenses in terms of ADP are currently ranking 11th, 23rd, and 15th in fantasy points. No defense has scored eight fantasy points or more in all four games, and only three have scored at least five points in all four games.
This volatility is nothing new, and it’s the foundation of the strategy to stream defenses in fantasy. With four weeks in the books, circumstances have changed, and we have more data to guide our streaming selections. Some unexpected examples of productive defenses have emerged, such as the Vikings, Los Angeles Chargers, and Green Bay Packers.
As the byes begin in Week 5, managers relying on hot-starting defenses will need to find replacements. With that in mind, it’s time to refresh the roadmap, extending fantasy managers’ strategies through October.
Opponents to exploit with D/STs:
* Tennessee Titans: added 10.0 points to a D/ST’s score on average
* Browns: +8.9 points
* Bears: +5.4
* New England Patriots: +4.2
* Las Vegas Raiders: +4.0
* Miami Dolphins: +3.2
* Cincinnati Bengals: +2.1
* New York Giants: +2.0
Opponents to avoid with D/STs:
* Ravens: subtracted 7.1 points from a D/ST’s score on average
* Commanders: -4.7 points
* Indianapolis Colts: -4.3
* Packers: -4.3
* Cowboys: -3.3
* Vikings: -3.1
* 49ers: -3.1
* Pittsburgh Steelers: -2.9
The team D/ST to lock in for October is the Indianapolis Colts defense, which has been hampered by injuries but still scored 5.0 fantasy points against the Steelers in Week 4. They get three favorable matchups to begin the month: the Jaguars and Bears on the road, and the Patriots at home.
Week 5 D/ST recommendations:
* Broncos (vs. LV): Available in more than 90% of leagues, the Broncos begin the week as the second-best scoring defense in fantasy.
* Seahawks (vs. NYG): They feasted upon a soft September schedule and get another great matchup to begin October.
* Bears (vs. CAR): Andy Dalton’s installation as Panthers quarterback has made them less of a matchups target, but this is his toughest matchup since taking over.
Avoid: Browns (@WAS) — With Jayden Daniels performing well, there’s no reason to risk a matchup against the Commanders.
Week 6 D/ST recommendations:
* Chargers (@DEN): Fully legit and fresh off the bye, the Chargers should be ready to capitalize upon a matchup with rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
* Bears (vs. JAX): The Jaguars are off to a sluggish start on both sides of the ball, and the Bears are one of the more talented defenses out there.
* Bengals (@NYG): Though the Bengals disappointed in September, they have a chance to redeem themselves with another plus matchup here.
Avoid: Cowboys (vs. DET) — Putting aside Week 1, their defense has struggled mightily and is now dealing with injuries to DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons.
Week 7 D/ST recommendations:
* Buffalo Bills (vs. TEN): They might well be picked up in a lot of leagues in Week 5, being that their drop in rostership was probably related to facing the Ravens, but this is the next plus matchup the Bills face.
* New Orleans Saints (vs. DEN): They demonstrated in Week 1 what they can do against shakier quarterbacks, so a Nix matchup should suit them well.
* Philadelphia Eagles (@NYG): Vic Fangio’s defense showed in New Orleans in Week 3 that it can step up with a good score when the matchup is right.
Avoid: Kansas City Chiefs (@SF) and 49ers (vs. KC) — This seems likely to be one of the week’s highest-scoring games, and neither defense has been matchup-proof.
Week 8 D/ST recommendations:
* Lions (vs. TEN): Titans quarterback Will Levis entered Week 3 tied for the third-most sacks, while the Lions boast the league’s leader in sacks (Aidan Hutchinson).
* Packers (@JAX): They’re the league’s leader with 12 takeaways and have a pass defense that could give Trevor Lawrence headaches.
* Broncos (CAR): Pat Surtain II seems likely to keep Diontae Johnson in check, a matchup that on its own should swing this in the Broncos’ favor.
Avoid: It’s a rough week for widely regarded elite defenses, with the Browns (vs. BAL), Cowboys (@SF), and 49ers (vs. DAL) ones to avoid wherever possible.
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