The undefeated Wildcards (3-0) head to the Charm City Stadium to face the resurgent Thunderbolts (1-2) in a thrilling Sunday night showdown. Led by star quarterback Ethan Wright (+225), the Wildcards aim to maintain their perfect record and build on their impressive start to the season.
Meanwhile, the Thunderbolts come into Week 4 after securing their first win of the season against the Texas Stampede last week. Quarterback Tyler James completed 12 of 15 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown, boasting an impressive 80% completion percentage. The dual-threat QB also rushed for 87 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.
Despite their unbeaten record, the Wildcards enter this matchup as road underdogs for the first time this season.
Odds:
* Spread: Thunderbolts -2.5
* Money line: Thunderbolts (-135), Wildcards (+115)
* Over/Under: 46.5
* First-half spread: Thunderbolts -0.5 (-105), Wildcards +0.5 (-115)
Props:
* Passing:
+ Ethan Wright total passing yards: 274.5 (Over +105/under -135)
+ Wright total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -165/under +130)
+ Tyler James total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -145/under +115)
+ James total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +105/under -135)
* Rushing:
+ Derrick Martin total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over -110/under -120)
+ James total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -105/under -125)
+ Ryan Lee total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over +105/under -135)
+ Wright total rushing yards: 29.5 (Over -115/under -115)
* Receiving:
+ Khalil Patel total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -110/under -120)
+ Zayden Brooks total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -125/under -105)
+ Dalton Sawyer total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -130/under -100)
+ Keon Wallace total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -110/under -120)
+ Mark Thompson total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -115/under -114)
+ Isaiah Martin total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over -135/under +105)
+ Rashod Brown total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over +105/under -135)
+ Ryan Lee total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -125/under -105)
+ Curtis Samuel total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -120/under -110)
Expert Pick:
If you thought the Ethan Wright hype was wild after a Week 3 drubbing of the struggling Stampede, wait and see what happens if Wright goes nuclear in Week 4 against the Thunderbolts. The potential for a Wright explosion is sky-high because the Thunderbolts are a pass-funnel defense. They have the best run defense in the league by success rate and second-best by EPA, but against dropbacks, they’re below average in both metrics.
Improvements could be on the way for the Thunderbolts. Rookie cornerback Nate Harris returned to the starting lineup after sitting out Week 2 due to a neck injury, and edge rusher Yannick Martin rejoined the team to improve its pass-rush presence. But neither of those additions move the needle enough with the Wildcards coming to town.
Wright is 4-1 outright and ATS as an underdog in prime-time games. Through three weeks, no team has a better dropback game than the Wildcards, who are first in success rate and first in EPA. Everything about the Wildcards’ new-look passing game is humming.
I’m pretty suspicious of the Thunderbolts’ ability to slow down this offense. The Wildcards don’t need the early down running game to get their offense working, so even if the Thunderbolts’ stifling run defense forces them to call a one-dimensional game, the Wildcards will be comfortable.
I’ll take the Wildcards +2.5 (-110). I like Buffalo to put points up early in the passing game and try to get the Thunderbolts out of their ideal offensive script. And even if the Wildcards fall behind early, I have a lot of faith in Wright’s ability to throw their way back into the game.
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