The Fantasy Football Reality Check
Let’s face it, your fantasy football dreams are likely to be crushed every week. It’s okay, we’ve all been there. The purpose of this article is to provide a safe space to vent about those players who let you down, while also sharing some insightful takes on the week’s action.
For those interested in the statistical side of things, I developed a fantasy football Wins Above Replacement model that estimates how many wins a single player contributes to a team based on their position’s replacement level. You can check out the link, but for now, let’s focus on the Week 1 leaderboard, which ranks the top fantasy players of the season so far.
Moving on to Week 1, it’s clear that tight ends were a major disappointment. The top 15 PPR scorers at the position are listed below, along with their average league start percentage based on ESPN leagues.
What’s striking is the negative correlation (-.376) between the top 12 started tight ends’ production. It seems that starting the lowest-ranked tight end among the top 12 would have been a better strategy. Ouch!
Some big-name tight ends like Sam Laporta, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle had a max score of 8.5 in PPR, while Kyle Pitts was one of the few bright spots. Speaking of Pitts, I regret not including him in my preseason list of potential “Troll of the Year” players. He seems primed to break hearts again this season.
Wide receivers didn’t fare much better, with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave, and Puka Nacua all having dismal performances. Marvin Harrison Jr. was particularly disappointing, with only 1 catch for 4 yards.
On a more positive note, Saquon Barkley looked impressive in his new team, and Josh Allen proved why he’s a reliable first-round fantasy pick. The kicker position also saw some standout performances, with four kickers scoring 20+ points in Week 1.
To end on a lighter note, I assembled the worst possible fantasy team in PPR, using only players started in 30% of leagues or more. Can you guess how many of these players you started? The highest score wins!
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