The NBA’s Three-Point Epidemic: A Statistical Breakdown
A Crisis in the Making
We’re not here to sugarcoat it – the NBA’s three-point shooting has spiraled out of control. Even the most die-hard fans are acknowledging the problem. Ratings have plummeted by 28% since last year, and it’s not hard to see why. The constant barrage of three-point attempts has turned games into monotonous shooting contests.
The Data Doesn’t Lie
Let’s take a closer look at the numbers. Eleven of the top 31 teams in terms of three-point attempts per game are from this season alone. The Boston Celtics, in particular, are leading the charge with an astonishing 51.08 three-point attempts per game. To put that into perspective, the difference between the Celtics and the second-place team is equivalent to the gap between that team and the 12th-ranked Timberwolves.
A Historical Context
The Celtics’ three-point efficiency is nothing to write home about, with a 37.2% success rate. In fact, they’re on pace to rank 215th all-time in three-point percentage. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers, who lead the league in effective field goal percentage and true shooting, are at least making their threes.
The Rise of the Missed Three
This season has seen the highest number of missed threes per game in NBA history. The data suggests that the inflection point for this trend was around the 2012-13 season, when three-point shooting started to take off. However, league-wide efficiency has remained relatively flat, hovering around 35-36% since the late 1990s.
Volume, Volume, Everywhere
The problem lies in the sheer volume of three-point attempts. I analyzed the top three-point shooters on every team in every season and plotted their attempts per season. The results are staggering – even the fourth and fifth most prevalent three-point shooters are taking an absurd number of shots. The data suggests that this trend started around the 2012-13 season, with a sharp uptick in attempts across the board.
The Real Culprit
While Steph Curry is often blamed for starting this trend, the data suggests that he wasn’t the only one. The real culprit is the analytics-driven realization that threes provide more points over the long haul of a game than post-up jumpers. The NBA’s decision to remove the hand check in 2004 led to a shift towards perimeter-oriented offense, and we’re still feeling the effects today.
A Call to Action
Until the NBA values and appreciates defense again, the game will continue to suffer. We need a return to physicality, not three-point contests. The struggle and competition that come with team sports are what make them compelling – not driving range contests or bumper bowling leagues. Until the NBA understands this, it will continue to falter.
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