Stats Lab: Uncovering Hidden Trends in the NFL
Every week, I dive into the world of NFL statistics to uncover the most meaningful trends and patterns that can give us an edge when making predictions. It’s a delicate process, as not all stats are created equal. Some may seem impressive at first glance but ultimately hold little significance.
Separating Signal from Noise
When analyzing data, it’s essential to distinguish between trends that hold real value and those that are simply noise. For instance, a team’s strong record against a particular division may not be as crucial as it seems, as teams are constantly evolving, and divisions don’t necessarily have a uniform style of play. On the other hand, a coach’s exceptional performance after a bye week or a team’s consistent success as a road underdog can reveal valuable insights.
League-Wide Trends: The Holy Grail
The most valuable stats are those that hold steady across hundreds of matchups, spanning multiple seasons. These trends can provide a significant advantage when making predictions. This week, I’ll share my entire cheat sheet, featuring the most critical stats for each game.
Week 14 Matchups
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Steelers have gone over in five consecutive road games, with an average of 55 total points in those contests. In Jalen Hurts’ 31 career home games, only six have had fewer than 43 points. This line seems too low, even without Pickens. The Stats Say: Over
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Both teams are coming off a bye, and in such matchups, the under has hit seven straight times, with a 12-2 record over the last 14. The Stats Say: Under
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
This could be a Super Bowl preview, and the data favors Detroit. The Lions have covered eight straight and 13 of 15 when playing on extra rest. The Stats Say: Lions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have been one of the best favorites in football this year, covering eight of nine games when giving points. December has been the most profitable month of Justin Herbert’s career, with a 10-5-1 ATS record. The Stats Say: Chargers
Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Packers are coming off a loss, which bodes well for them, as Matt LaFleur is 18-10 ATS coming off a loss in his career. Geno Smith, on the other hand, has covered just two of his last 11 home games. The Stats Say: Packers
Stay ahead of the curve with the most critical NFL stats and trends. Catch up on this week’s Advisors for more insights.
Leave a Reply