Uncovering Hidden Gems in NFL Stats
Every week, I dive into the world of NFL statistics to uncover trends that can give us an edge in our betting decisions. With so much data available, it’s essential to separate the meaningful from the meaningless. A team’s performance against a specific division, for instance, might not be as important as a coach’s track record after a bye week or a team’s ability to cover as a road underdog.
Identifying Valuable Trends
League-wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups over the years are the holy grail of NFL stats. These trends can provide valuable insights into team and coach performance, helping us make more informed betting decisions. But it’s crucial to examine each stat individually and determine its relevance.
This Week’s Cheat Sheet
Here’s my comprehensive cheat sheet for this week’s games, featuring lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook (subject to change).
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have dominated the Browns, covering six straight home games against their AFC North rivals. Mike Tomlin’s teams have consistently performed well, making them a solid bet.
The Verdict: Steelers
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins has struggled as an underdog, with a 3-11 ATS record in his last 14 games. Additionally, he’s just 3-11 in December games. The Falcons might be in trouble.
The Verdict: Vikings
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks have covered five of their last six games in Arizona, while the Cardinals have struggled against NFC West opponents, going 4-14 ATS in their last 18 divisional matchups.
The Verdict: Seahawks
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
The Bills are on a hot streak, but the Rams have been exceptional in December, with a 9-1 SU and ATS record under McVay and Stafford.
The Verdict: Rams
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Primetime unders have been a trend this season, and this game is no exception. The under is 5-1 in Chargers road games, and Jim Harbaugh’s teams have kept scores low against divisional opponents.
The Verdict: Under
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