March Madness is just around the corner, and for NCAA men’s basketball enthusiasts who don’t eat, sleep, and breathe the sport, it’s time to get up to speed. Let’s face it, not everyone can be a college basketball guru like Jon Rothstein or John Fanta, dedicating their lives to tracking 364 teams year-round. For those of us with a semblance of a social life, we need a shortcut.
That’s where data comes in. I’ve been crunching numbers and assembling a treasure trove of college basketball stats to help casual fans like us navigate the chaos. The goal is to identify sneaky good and sneaky bad teams without having to watch every game under the sun.
My simplified model uses four key components to determine a team’s true rank:
- Team win percentage
- Team point differential
- Opponent’s win percentage
- Opponent’s average NET ranking
These factors are combined to create a “Special Score” – a z-score that gives us a more accurate picture of a team’s strength. Why these four factors? Think about how you’d evaluate a team’s performance: you’d look at their win-loss record, how they performed against opponents, the quality of those opponents, and the strength of their opponents’ schedules.
The Top Contenders
Using this model, here are the top 64 teams as of Sunday morning, along with their NET rankings for comparison:
Auburn stands out as a clear frontrunner, with a significant gap between their Special Score and the next best team, Alabama. This is crucial information for casual fans, as we know the tournament often favors the top teams in the later rounds.
Surprises and Sleepers
Alabama’s high ranking may raise eyebrows, especially given Duke’s impressive point differential. However, a closer look reveals Duke’s opponents have been relatively weak, with a 56% win percentage and an average NET ranking of 166. Meanwhile, Alabama has faced stiffer competition, making them a more attractive pick.
Kentucky, despite their recent loss to Auburn, has a strong case as a deep tournament threat. Their opponents have had a lower average NET ranking than most teams around them, and they’ve already beaten Duke.
Duds and Dark Horses
On the other hand, teams like Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Gonzaga may not be as strong as their reputations suggest. UConn, in particular, is a team to avoid, with a mid-30s ranking that’s in line with more advanced models.
As we dive into March Madness, remember that data can only take us so far. The beauty of the tournament lies in its unpredictability. So, get those brackets ready, and let the games begin!
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