The Unsettling Math Behind Boeing’s Whistleblower Deaths
As I settle into my seat at the bar, surrounded by the soft jazz and dimly lit ambiance, I’m not here to indulge in a Classic Old Fashioned or Gin Fizz. Today, I’m here to crunch some numbers. The kind that will leave you questioning the odds of a series of events that seem too convenient to be mere coincidence.
A Statistical Anomaly
Two Boeing whistleblowers have died in the past two months, with reported causes unrelated to any nefarious actors. But what are the chances of this happening randomly? As a stats enthusiast, I’ll break it down for you.
Let’s start with the first whistleblower, who reportedly committed suicide a couple of months ago. According to the CDC, approximately 39,000 males committed suicide in 2022, out of a total of 165 million males in the US. This gives us a 0.02% chance of any one male committing suicide in a given year.
The Cocktail Napkin Calculations
Next, we have the latest convenient death, 45-year-old Joshua Dean, who died from a bacterial infection. Statista shows that males between 45-54 died by any means in 2020 at a rate of 601.5 per 100,000 (0.6%). Now, let’s do some napkin math. If 0.02% equals 0.0002 and 0.6% equals 0.006, we can figure the odds of randomly selecting someone who will commit suicide and another who will die of any means from a sample of 165 million males in the US.
The Odds Are Against Us
After some calculations, we get a rough estimate of 1 in 833,333. But we’re not done yet. Since these events occurred within a two-month span, we need to divide that number by six. This brings us to a staggering 1 in 5,000,000.
The Forgotten Factor
However, we’ve forgotten a crucial element: the approximately 30 total whistleblowers. This introduces 435 different possible combinations of two whistleblowers randomly dying with the respective rates described. The irony is that the more whistleblowers, the more likely these events can occur randomly.
The Revised Odds
After recalculating, we get a revised estimate of 0.0159% – roughly a 1 in 6,289 chance – of at least two whistleblowers from a set of 30 randomly dying in a two-month span as reported. To put this into perspective, that’s equivalent to winning a bet at +1,200,000 without the vig.
The Devil’s Advocate
While the numbers are compelling, there are explanations that can’t be calculated. Perhaps those who are suicidal are more likely to decide to whistleblow, or the stress of whistleblowing increases chances of self-harm or infection. The truth is, even with these numbers, it’s still circumstantial.
The Final Verdict
As I finish my drink and reflect on the unsettling math behind Boeing’s whistleblower deaths, I’m left with more questions than answers. One thing is certain, though – the odds are against us, and that’s a sobering thought.
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