Uncovering Hidden Gems in NFL Statistics
Every week, I dive into the world of NFL statistics to uncover trends that can give us an edge in our predictions. It’s a delicate balance between identifying meaningful patterns and ignoring noise. A team’s impressive record against a specific division, for instance, may not be as significant as it seems. However, a coach’s exceptional performance after a bye week or a team’s consistent ability to cover as a road underdog can be telling.
Separating Signal from Noise
To make sense of the data, I examine each statistic individually, asking myself whether it holds real value. This approach allows me to identify league-wide trends that have stood the test of time, spanning hundreds of matchups over the years. These trends are the holy grail of NFL statistics.
This Week’s Cheat Sheet
Below, you’ll find my comprehensive cheat sheet for this week’s games, featuring lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook (subject to change).
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have developed a reputation as a big-time under team, with the under hitting in 22 of their last 29 home games. When they’re home on short rest, the under has been a consistent winner, with a 9-game streak.
The Verdict: Under
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
When these two teams clash, I have a simple rule: take the points. The underdog has covered an impressive 26 of the last 37 matchups between the Steelers and Ravens. Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog in divisional matchups is equally impressive, with a 26-9-2 ATS mark.
The Verdict: Steelers
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
This one requires a closer look. Home underdogs with a winning record, playing in a divisional matchup in December, might seem like a good bet. However, the data tells a different story. Since 2013, these teams have covered just 7 of 17 games, suggesting they’re underdogs for a reason. I’m backing the Eagles in this one.
The Verdict: Eagles
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
The Vikings have been a solid road favorite under Kevin O’Connell, boasting a 7-2-3 ATS record in that spot. Meanwhile, Geno Smith has struggled at home, covering just 2 of his last 12 games in Seattle.
The Verdict: Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Baker Mayfield has been a road warrior with the Bucs, going 13-3 ATS on the road. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have been dismal at home, covering just 1 of their last 9 games.
The Verdict: Bucs
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