Stats Lab Insights: Uncovering Hidden Trends in the NFL
Every week, I dive into the data to uncover meaningful trends that can give us an edge in our NFL bets. It’s a daunting task, as I need to separate the signal from the noise and identify patterns that hold true across multiple games and seasons.
Coaches and Trends
A coach’s performance in specific situations can be a powerful indicator of future success. For instance, a coach who excels after a bye week or has a strong record against a particular division can be a valuable asset. Similarly, teams that consistently cover as road dogs or have a strong ATS record against a specific opponent can provide a reliable edge.
Week 12 Matchups
Here are my insights for the upcoming Week 12 games:
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
The Vikings are road favorites for the third straight week, and the under has hit in their last two games. When Kevin O’Connell’s team is a road favorite, the under is 10-2. The Bears have also been trending towards unders, with four straight games going under. The Verdict: Under
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson has been solid to bet on, going 8-3 ATS in his career. He’s also covered five straight as an underdog. However, road favorites of a touchdown or more have struggled, covering just 15 of the last 51 games. The Verdict: Colts
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
This matchup pits a strong road QB against a struggling home QB. Kyler Murray is an impressive 23-10-2 ATS on the road, while Geno Smith has covered just four of his last 18 home games. The Verdict: Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
The 49ers are underdogs for the first time since October 2022, but Kyle Shanahan has a strong record in this spot, going 13-5 ATS in his last 18 games getting points. The Verdict: 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
Jalen Hurts has struggled as a road favorite, covering just eight of 23 games. The Rams, meanwhile, have excelled in primetime, going 18-9 ATS since 2019. The Verdict: Rams
These insights are just the starting point for your Week 12 bets. Remember to always do your own research and consider multiple factors before making a decision.
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