Turning the Page: New Week, New Opportunities
After a tough Week 6, it’s time to move on and focus on the upcoming games. As the legendary Bob Seger would say, “Turn the page.” With that in mind, let’s dive into some exciting props for Week 7.
Quarterback Prop
Justin Herbert OVER 249.5 passing yards & Ladd McConkey anytime touchdown (+950)
It’s my birthday, and I’m feeling lucky! Justin Herbert has a cannon for an arm, and despite being tied to a low-volume passing offense, he’s capable of putting up big numbers. In his last outing against the Broncos, he threw for 237 yards without an interception. The Arizona Cardinals’ passing defense is vulnerable, ranking near the bottom in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and completions of 10-plus yards allowed. With a spread of 2.5, I expect enough back-and-forth to push Herbert over the top. Ladd McConkey, the Bolts’ No. 1 WR, leads the team in routes run, targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He’s due for a touchdown, especially against a Cardinals squad that has allowed the sixth-most scores to opposing WRs.
Running Back Props
Bijan Robinson OVER 59.6 rushing yards (-135) + Tyler Allgeier longest rush OVER 13.5 yards (-110)
It’s “Bija vu” in Atlanta! Despite a timeshare in the Falcons’ backfield, Bijan Robinson has cleared 59.6 rushing yards in four of six games. As three-point home favorites, game flow should work in his favor against the Seahawks, who have allowed 5.0 yards per carry to opposing rushers. Tyler Allgeier has posted more rushes over 10 yards than Robinson, and Seattle’s below-average tackling has given up the 13th most opponent yards post-contact per rush.
Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush OVER 13.5 rushing yards (EVEN)
The Vikings’ stout run defense has been aided by game script, but I believe that trend will change this week against the Lions. Dan Campbell’s team prides itself on establishing the run, and Gibbs has showcased his game-breaking ability with eight different rushes of 14 or more yards this season.
Tony Pollard OVER 90.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114)
With Tyjae Spears ruled out, Tony Pollard will get the lion’s share of the workload against the Bills. Buffalo has been awful at containing running backs, allowing 5.3 yards per carry, and Pollard has been much better this season than last year as the lead back in Dallas.
Tank Bigsby anytime TD (-105)
In London, Tank Bigsby will face the Patriots, who have struggled against opposing teams’ running backs. With Travis Etienne Jr. likely out, Bigsby will be in line for more work and should get first crack at finding the end zone.
Wide Receiver Prop
Jordan Addison OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-120)
After a rocky start to his second year, Jordan Addison is due for a rebound. He ranks second among the team’s WRs in looks and will face a Lions squad that has allowed the fourth-most yards to the position. With a projected point total of 50.5 and a spread of 1.5, Addison is likely to eclipse his current catch total and cruise past 50 receiving yards.
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