The NFL season has finally turned a corner for bettors, with Week 5 bringing a slew of close games and a shift in fortunes. After a rough start, favorites dominated the early slate, with eight straight winning outright and seven covering the spread. The Baltimore Ravens, led by Derrick Henry, and the New York Jets, sparked by Garrett Wilson, were among the most-bet players to score touchdowns.
However, the tide turned in the afternoon games, with the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants pulling off upsets as 7.5-point underdogs. This season, underdogs of 7.5 points or more are 8-1 against the spread and 7-2 straight up. The biggest favorite on the board has lost outright in each of the first five weeks.
Sportsbooks were relieved by the afternoon upsets, which helped split the betting action and mitigate losses. The average NFL point spread so far is 4.09, the tightest through five weeks in the Super Bowl era. There has been only one double-digit favorite, the fewest through five weeks in the Super Bowl era.
In college football, Vanderbilt’s stunning upset of Alabama has shaken up the National Championship odds. The Commodores’ 22.5-point underdog victory has made Ohio State the consensus title favorite, followed by Texas. Alabama fell from +375 to +650 to win the national championship.
In the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders, and Denver Broncos are outpacing their preseason win totals. The Vikings, who entered the season with a 6.5-win total, are now 5-0 and the only undefeated team in the NFC. The Commanders, who had a 6.5-win total, are 4-1 SU and ATS, while the Broncos, who had a 5.5-win total, are on pace to hit the over for the first time since 2015.
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