**Confident Bets Ahead of Week 5**
When it comes to placing wagers, I need two essential elements to feel confident: a model-backed approach and a less efficient market. This week, I’ve identified several opportunities that meet these criteria, from defensive player props to alternate receiving yards and anytime touchdowns.
**Defensive Player Props**
* Jamel Dean (TB) under 5.5 tackles + assists (+110): Despite Dean’s high tackle rate, my model projects him to have just 4.2 combined tackles on Thursday night, making the under a valuable bet.
* Quinnen Williams (NYJ) under 0.5 sacks (-155): With Williams’ pass rushing numbers down this season, my sack model leans towards the under, making this a solid bet.
**Alternate Receiving Yards**
* Andrei Iosivas (CIN) 30+ receiving yards (+130): Iosivas has seen plenty of playing time, and with the Ravens’ strong rush defense, the model expects him to hit the over in this higher-total game.
**Running Back Receptions and Receiving Yards**
* Breece Hall (NYJ) under 29.5 receiving yards (-125): By factoring in man coverage rates and blitz rates, my model believes Hall’s receiving yards will be lower than expected against the Vikings.
**Anytime Touchdowns**
* Nico Collins (HOU) to score a touchdown (+110): My touchdown model has been bullish on Collins all season, and with his improved receiver scores, this bet offers value.
**Alternate Total**
* Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders under 44.5 (-125): FPI+’s model expects less scoring variance due to the three-point spread, making the under a valuable bet at this price.
**Past Results**
Category Record Unit Change
Sacks 12-4-2 +4.4
Tackles 14-3 +9.7
Alternate Receiving Yards 6-8 +4.7
RB Receptions 2-1 +0.4
Anytime Touchdown 2-5-2 -2.7
Multiple Touchdowns 0-1 -1
Interceptions Thrown 0-3 -3
Alternate Total 1-2 -1.2
Overall 37-27-2 +11.3
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