**Smart Bets: Unlocking Value in the NFL**
When it comes to placing wagers, I rely on two essential factors to give me the confidence to make a bet:
1. **Data-driven insights**: I trust the outputs of sophisticated models, either built by myself or my colleagues, to identify opportunities that others may overlook.
2. **Market inefficiencies**: I seek out areas where the masses aren’t paying attention, such as defensive props or alternate lines, to capitalize on less efficient markets.
This approach forms the foundation of my weekly column, where I’ll share model-backed bets in often-overlooked categories. My goal is simple: to come out ahead by identifying value in the odds, regardless of the price point.
**Week 4 Picks**
Let’s dive into the latest recommendations, covering a range of odds from -1000 to 100-1. Remember, value is value, no matter the price.
**Defensive Player Props**
[Insert props and analysis]
**Season Results**
Track our progress throughout the season, with updated results at the bottom of this article.
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