The NFL’s Passing Game Conundrum: Unraveling the Mystery of Declining Yards
As the 2024 season unfolds, a peculiar trend has emerged: passing yards are plummeting. For the fourth consecutive year, teams are averaging fewer passing yards per game, defying the conventional wisdom that the NFL has become a passing-friendly league. To grasp the underlying causes of this phenomenon, we delved into the world of coaches, players, and statistical analysis.
The data paints a stark picture. Through four weeks, NFL teams are averaging a meager 202.8 passing yards per game, a staggering 47-yard drop compared to 2020. This season’s pace would result in the fewest passing yards since 2001, when Kurt Warner led the Rams to a remarkable 4,830 yards.
One factor contributing to this decline is the influx of young, inexperienced quarterbacks. The past two seasons have seen a significant drop in the average number of career starts among NFL starting quarterbacks. This season, the average is a mere 66.6 starts, down from 82.8 in 2022. The consequences are evident: rookie quarterbacks are struggling, with three starters combining for seven touchdown passes and nine interceptions through four weeks.
Defensive coordinators have adapted to the passing game’s dominance by employing schemes that feature two deep safeties. This tactic has led to a surge in umbrella coverages, which are designed to prevent chunk plays in the passing game. As a result, quarterbacks are facing split-safety coverages on nearly 46% of dropbacks, the highest rate since data collection began in 2016.
The impact on passing yardage is twofold. On one hand, completion percentages continue to rise, with quarterbacks completing 66.1% of attempts this season. However, the average air yards per pass attempt have fallen from 8.1 in 2017 to 7.0 this season, indicating a shift towards shorter, quicker passes.
The proliferation of dual-threat quarterbacks has also altered the landscape. With more quarterbacks capable of running the ball, designed runs by quarterbacks have increased by 102% in the past two seasons. This trend has led to a decline in passing attempts, with teams opting for quarterback-designed runs instead.
As the NFL continues to evolve, one thing is certain: the passing game is undergoing a significant transformation. Whether this trend will continue or reverse remains to be seen, but one thing is clear – the league is in a state of flux, and only time will tell what the future holds.
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