**Sunday Morning Stats Review**
Every week, I dive into the numbers to uncover trends that can give us an edge in our predictions. It’s essential to separate meaningful patterns from irrelevant ones. For instance, a team’s impressive record against a specific division might not hold much weight, as teams constantly evolve. On the other hand, a coach’s strong performance after a bye week or a team’s consistent success as a road underdog can be telling.
In my research, I’ve found that league-wide trends that persist across numerous matchups over the years are particularly valuable. This week, I’ll share my comprehensive cheat sheet, featuring lines courtesy of the DraftKings Sportsbook.
**Last Week’s Recap: 5-0 | Year-to-Date: 10-5**
**Philadelphia Eagles (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 2-1 ATS)**
1 PM on FOX | PHI -2.5 | T 45
The under has been a reliable bet in recent years, especially in this matchup. The Eagles have struggled on the road, averaging just 18 points per game over their last nine away games. Meanwhile, the under is 9-1 in the Eagles’ last 10 road games and 8-2 in the Bucs’ last 10 home games.
**The Stats Say:** Under
**Minnesota Vikings (3-0, 3-0 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1, 2-1 ATS)**
1 PM on CBS | GB -2.5 | T 43.5
Since 2006, 3-0 teams that are road underdogs in Week 4 have covered just 29% of the time (6-15 ATS).
**The Stats Say:** Packers
**New Orleans Saints (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 1-2 ATS)**
1 PM on FOX | ATL -1.5 | T 42.5
Kirk Cousins has a strong track record following a loss, boasting a 35-17 ATS record since 2015.
**The Stats Say:** Falcons
**Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, 2-1 ATS) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1, 2-1 ATS)**
4:25 PM on CBS | KC -8 | T 39
Big underdogs with low game totals tend to perform well, covering 70% of the time (21-9 ATS) since 2017.
**The Stats Say:** Chargers
**Buffalo Bills (3-0, 2-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-2, 1-2 ATS)**
8:20 PM on NBC | BAL -2.5 | T 46.5
The under has been a consistent winner in the Bills’ road games, going 13-4 in their last 17 away games. Additionally, the under has hit in 23 of the last 34 primetime September games.
**The Stats Say:** Under
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