Every Sunday, we dive into the world of statistics to uncover hidden gems and trends that can give us an edge in our weekly picks. It’s essential to separate meaningful patterns from random noise, focusing on data that holds significance across multiple seasons and matchups.
This week, we’ll examine some intriguing stats that can inform our decisions. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers:
New Orleans Saints (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
DAL -6.5
T 45.5
Dak Prescott excels as a home favorite, covering 10 of his last 14 games in that situation. Meanwhile, Dennis Allen’s teams struggle to build momentum, going 5-16-2 ATS after a win. Additionally, teams that won by 27 or more points in Week 1 are just 5-14 ATS in Week 2.
The Numbers Say: Cowboys
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
DET -7
T 51.5
Baker Mayfield boasts an impressive 8-1 ATS record on the road, 9-3 as an underdog, and 7-1 as a road underdog. These trends are all relevant in this matchup, suggesting the Bucs can keep it close.
The Numbers Say: Bucs
Los Angeles Rams (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
4:05 PM on FOX
ARI -1.5
T 49
Teams playing consecutive road games to start the season, like the Rams, often receive underestimated odds in Week 2. Since 2019, they’re 12-3 ATS in this situation. Additionally, Sean McVay has dominated the Cardinals, covering 12 of 15 career games against them.
The Numbers Say: Rams
Cincinnati Bengals (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
KC -6
T 47.5
Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes have a history of close matchups, with all four of their career games decided by exactly 3 points. The Bengals also have a strong bounce-back trend, with Burrow going 14-6-1 ATS after a loss. Furthermore, Week 1 favorites that lost (like the Bengals) have rebounded to go 19-6 ATS in Week 2.
The Numbers Say: Bengals
Chicago Bears (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Houston Texans (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
HOU -6.5
T 45.5
CJ Stroud has struggled as a favorite, going 3-6 ATS when laying points. The Texans, historically, have performed poorly in primetime games, boasting a 12-28-2 ATS record.
The Numbers Say: Bears
Leave a Reply