The 2024 NFL season is still in its early stages, but it’s never too early to look ahead to the 2025 draft, set to take place on April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Using advanced analytics, we’ve simulated the remainder of the season 20,000 times to project the draft order for all 32 teams.
Our latest projections show a shake-up at the top, with a new team emerging as the favorite to secure the number one pick. Meanwhile, a playoff team from last season has dropped into the top five.
Here are the projected first-round draft order and chances for each team to earn a top pick:
1. Team A – Average draft position: 7.3, Chance to earn No. 1 pick: 15.7%, Chance to earn top-five pick: 52.4%, Chance to earn top-10 pick: 76.7%
2. Team B – Average draft position: 7.8, Chance to earn No. 1 pick: 10.6%, Chance to earn top-five pick: 44.5%, Chance to earn top-10 pick: 72.1%
3. Team C – Average draft position: 7.8, Chance to earn No. 1 pick: 11.2%, Chance to earn top-five pick: 45.1%, Chance to earn top-10 pick: 73.2%
4. Team D – Average draft position: 8.0, Chance to earn No. 1 pick: 10.2%, Chance to earn top-five pick: 45%, Chance to earn top-10 pick: 72.6%
5. Team E – Average draft position: 8.3, Chance to earn No. 1 pick: 11.8%, Chance to earn top-five pick: 46.6%, Chance to earn top-10 pick: 72.3%
…and so on, all the way to:
32. Team F – Average draft position: 27.7, Chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.3%
Check back every week for updated projections throughout the season.
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