The NFL season is off to a wild start, with underdogs dominating and favorites stumbling. In just three weeks, betting underdogs have gone 15-15 straight up and 18-12 against the spread. Even heavy favorites haven’t been immune to upsets, with the biggest favorite on the board losing outright for the third straight week.
The betting public is still trying to catch on to the underdog trend, with sportsbooks reporting that they’re pulling for nearly every underdog. This has led to a surge in promotional odds boosts from sportsbooks, leaving bettors wondering if bookmakers are worried that they’ll run out of money.
Despite the chaos, bookmakers believe the early-season upsets reflect the widespread parity in the NFL. They think the betting market is overreacting week to week, with teams looking good one week and then underachieving the next. According to one veteran bookmaker, there are only a handful of elite teams, and the rest are stuck in a pack of well-matched teams, making the NFL extremely unpredictable.
One team that’s defied expectations is the Minnesota Vikings, who have gone from 100-1 Super Bowl odds to +3000 after winning their first three games. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been instrumental in their success, throwing for 657 yards and eight touchdowns through three weeks. As a result, he’s moved from not even being offered in the MVP betting market to +3500.
Another player making waves is Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers, who has become the first player in NFL history with 20 receptions and three touchdowns through his first three games. His odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year have plummeted from +1300 to +200, making him the favorite for the honor.
In other news, a bettor placed a $1 million money-line bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Falcons straight up, which paid off when the Chiefs won 22-17. Meanwhile, a customer with BetMGM wagered $115,000 on Notre Dame -27.5 against Miami (Ohio), only to see the Fighting Irish win 28-3 but fail to cover the spread.
As the season continues to unfold, one thing is clear: anything can happen in the NFL, and bettors would do well to keep their wits about them.
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