Every Sunday morning during the football season, I’ll be sharing my favorite statistics from the previous week’s games, along with some additional insights I uncovered during my research. When analyzing the data, I strive to distinguish between meaningful trends and mere coincidences. For instance, a team’s impressive record against a particular division might not hold much significance, as teams and divisions are constantly evolving. On the other hand, a coach’s consistent success following a bye week or a team’s tendency to cover as a road underdog can be telling signs.
Below, you’ll find my comprehensive cheat sheet from last week, featuring lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook (subject to change).
Last Week: 3-2 YTD: 5-5
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
NO -2.5 T 49.5
I’m eyeing the Eagles team total under 23.5. Their offense has struggled on the road, averaging just 18 points per game in their last 8 away contests. The Saints’ defense has been stout at home, allowing only 17 points per game over the past two years.
The Numbers Suggest: Eagles under 23.5 points
Los Angeles Chargers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
PIT -1.5 T 35.5
The Steelers have a knack for close games. Under their current coach, they boast a 21-8 ATS record in games with spreads under 2 points and an impressive 61-37 ATS mark in games with spreads of 3 points or less.
The Numbers Suggest: Steelers
Baltimore Ravens (0-2, 0-2 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
BAL -1.5 T 48.5
Desperate teams often perform better. The Ravens, seeking their first win, fit this mold. Historically, 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the previous season have covered 63% of their Week 3 games.
The Numbers Suggest: Ravens
Detroit Lions (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
DET -2.5 T 52.5
The Lions have consistently bounced back from losses under their current regime, covering 8 straight games following a defeat. Quarterback Jared Goff has an impressive 17-8 ATS record after a loss with Detroit.
The Numbers Suggest: Lions
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0, 1-1 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
KC -3.5 T 46.5
Primetime unders have been a profitable bet, especially early in the season. Since 2021, primetime unders have gone 23-9 in September.
The Numbers Suggest: Under
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